What if the Ottoman Empire joins the Entente?

The Ottoman Empire’s decision to join the Central Powers in World War I stands as a pivotal moment in the conflict. This choice ultimately led to the empire’s dissolution and reshaped the Middle East.

But what if the Ottoman Empire had chosen differently? What if they had joined with the Entente powers instead?

This alternate history scenario explores a world where the Ottoman Empire made a different choice, with far-reaching consequences for global politics and the map of the modern world.

Table Of Contents

1. Ottoman Empire: Conflicting Opinions on the War
2. Possible Reasons for Joining the Entente
3. Immediate Effects on World War I
4. Post-War Consequences for the Ottoman Empire
5. The "Second Crimean War"
6. Post-war Period in the Ottoman Empire
7. Modern Day Implications
8. The Arab-Jewish Conflict
8. Would the Ottoman Empire Survive?
8. Final Thoughts: What if the Ottoman Empire joins the Entente?
Further Reading

1. Ottoman Empire: Conflicting Opinions on the War

*The sheikh ul Islam, Emperor Wilhelm II, the sultan, Excellency Enver Pasha in WW1*

As World War I erupted in 1914, the Ottoman Empire found itself at a crossroads.

The Ottoman Empire’s relationships with the European powers were complex and often strained. However, it maintained relatively friendly ties with France and Britain, while also nurturing a growing alliance with Germany.

Within the Ottoman government, opinions were sharply divided.

Enver Pasha, the Minister for War, strongly favored aligning with Germany. His time as a military attaché in Berlin had left him impressed by German military might and efficiency.
On the other hand, Talat Pasha, the Minister for Interior, leaned towards the Entente. He believed that siding with Britain and France posed less risk to the empire’s territorial integrity.
Meanwhile, Sultan Mehmed V advocated for neutrality, but his voice carried little weight in the face of the more powerful ministers.

2. Possible Reasons for Joining the Entente

In our alternate timeline, several factors could have tipped the scales in favor of joining the Entente.

The internal political dynamics might have shifted, with Talat Pasha’s influence growing at a crucial moment.

The potential benefits of aligning with the Entente were significant. Britain and France could offer financial support and guarantees of Ottoman territorial integrity, which would have been particularly appealing given the empire’s recent losses in the Balkan Wars.

Moreover, the existing relationships with Entente powers could have been leveraged.

The Ottomans had a long history of diplomatic and economic ties with Britain and France.

In this alternate scenario, these relationships might have been strengthened. Perhaps through renewed promises of support and modernization assistance.

3. Immediate Effects on World War I

The Ottoman Empire joining the Entente would have dramatically altered the course of World War I. The impact on the Balkan front would have been immediate and significant.

Bulgaria faced with potential encirclement, might have reconsidered joining the Central Powers or joined the war much later.

This would have relieved pressure on Serbia, potentially allowing it to hold out longer against Austro-Hungarian attacks.

The Eastern Front would have seen substantial changes.

Without having to fight the Ottomans in the Caucasus, Russia could have concentrated more forces against Austria-Hungary and Germany. This might have led to more significant Russian successes in the early stages of the war.

One of the most notable changes would be the absence of the Gallipoli Campaign.

This infamous battle cost hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides. The resources and manpower that the Entente powers poured into this campaign could have been directed elsewhere, potentially hastening the end of the war.

With the Ottomans securing the Dardanelles for the Entente, supply lines to Russia would have remained open. This could have prevented or mitigated the supply issues that contributed to the Russian Revolution.

This may have potentially changed the entire course of 20th-century history.

4. Post-War Consequences for the Ottoman Empire

In the aftermath of an Entente victory, the Ottoman Empire would likely have emerged stronger and more stable.

Territorial gains might have included parts of the Caucasus and perhaps even some recovered Balkan territories.

The empire’s relationship with other Entente powers would have been strengthened, positioning it as a key player in the post-war order.

Economically, the benefits would have been substantial.

War debts to Entente powers might have been forgiven or restructured on favorable terms. The empire could have received financial aid for reconstruction and modernization, similar to the Marshall Plan in our timeline.

5. The “Second Crimean War”

Despite being on the same side during World War I, tensions between the Ottoman Empire and Russia would likely have persisted.

If Russia descended into civil war on this timeline with a Bolshevik Revolution, the Ottomans might have seen an opportunity to expand their influence in the Caucasus.

This could have led to a conflict that we might call the “Second Crimean War.”

The Ottomans could have intervened in the Russian Civil War, supporting anti-Bolshevik forces in the Caucasus region.

The outcome might have been a stalemate, with the Ottomans securing some gains in the Caucasus but failing to establish complete control over the region.

6. Post-war Period in the Ottoman Empire

The interwar period would have been crucial for the Ottoman Empire’s development.

The handling of Arab nationalism would have been a significant challenge.

Without British support, Arab revolts might have been less successful, allowing the Ottomans to maintain control. However, managing these nationalist sentiments would have required careful political maneuvering and possibly some degree of autonomy for Arab regions.

Economically, the empire could have experienced significant growth.

With access to new resources and technologies, and possibly benefiting from European investment, the Ottomans could have undergone rapid industrialization. The discovery of oil in the empire’s territories would have provided a massive economic boost, potentially making it one of the wealthiest nations in the world.

With increased stability and resources, the government could have implemented more progressive policies, potentially transitioning towards a more democratic system while maintaining the sultanate as a constitutional monarchy.

7. Modern Day Implications

Imagining the Ottoman Empire in the 21st century presents a fascinating alternate world.

As a major power in the Middle East, it would play a crucial role in global geopolitics. Its control over vast oil resources would make it an economic powerhouse. But also a focus of international attention and potential conflicts.

The empire’s survival would dramatically alter the map of the Middle East.

The nations that emerged from the empire’s dissolution in our timeline – Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel/Palestine – would not exist in their current forms. This would have profound implications for regional politics and global conflicts.

Internally, the empire would face ongoing challenges.

Balancing the interests of its diverse populations – Turks, Arabs, Kurds, and numerous other ethnic and religious groups – would require sophisticated political structures. The persistence of nationalist sentiments, particularly among Arabs, would likely remain a source of tension.

8. The Arab-Jewish Conflict

If the Ottoman Empire had survived and joined the Entente, the Arab-Jewish conflict would likely have developed very differently. Here’s how it might have played out:

No Sykes-Picot Agreement: The secret 1916 agreement between Britain and France to divide Ottoman territories would not have occurred. This agreement significantly shaped the modern Middle East.
No Balfour Declaration: The 1917 British declaration supporting a Jewish homeland in Palestine might never have been issued. The Ottoman Empire would still control the region.
Continued Ottoman administration in Palestine: Palestine would remain under Ottoman rule. The empire might have continued its policy of allowing Jewish immigration but limiting land purchases.
Different Jewish immigration patterns: Jewish immigration might have been more regulated and gradual. The large waves of immigration seen in the 1920s and 1930s might not have occurred.
Without British control of Palestine, there would be no British Mandate period. This would significantly alter the development of Jewish and Arab nationalist movements.
Delayed or altered Zionist movement: The Zionist movement might have developed differently, possibly focusing on cultural autonomy within the Ottoman Empire rather than full statehood.
Arab nationalism might have remained focused on autonomy within the empire rather than independent statehood.

In this scenario, while tensions between Arab and Jewish communities might still exist, the nature and intensity of the conflict would likely be very different from what we’ve seen in our timeline.

The absence of European colonial influence and the continued presence of Ottoman authority could have led to a more gradual and potentially less violent evolution of Arab-Jewish relations in the region.

8. Would the Ottoman Empire Survive?

The survival of the Ottoman Empire, even if it had joined the Entente, is not guaranteed.

However, it would have had a better chance of survival than it did in our actual timeline.

Factors favoring survival:

Victorious alliance: Being on the winning side of WWI would have preserved the empire’s territorial integrity initially.
Economic benefits: Debt forgiveness and potential economic aid from Entente allies could have strengthened the empire’s economy.
Modernization opportunities: Access to Western technology and expertise could have accelerated reforms and modernization efforts.
Maintained legitimacy: Avoiding defeat would have preserved the Sultan’s legitimacy as Caliph of Islam.
No Treaty of Sèvres: The harsh treaty that carved up Ottoman territories would not have occurred.

Challenges to survival:

Internal ethnic tensions: Managing diverse populations, especially Arab nationalism, would remain a significant challenge.
Modernization pressures: Balancing traditional structures with necessary reforms could create internal conflicts.
Great Power politics: Even as an ally, the empire might face pressure from European powers seeking influence in the region.
Ideological shifts: Rising nationalist and secular ideologies could challenge the empire’s traditional power structures.
Regional rivalries: Conflicts with neighboring powers, like Russia over the Caucasus, could strain the empire’s resources.

Possible outcomes:

Gradual transformation: The empire might evolve into a more decentralized federal structure, granting autonomy to different regions while maintaining overall unity.
Constitutional monarchy: The sultanate could transition into a figurehead role, with real power held by a democratic government.
Partial dissolution: The empire might lose some territories but maintain control over its core regions.
Delayed collapse: Internal pressures might eventually lead to the empire’s dissolution, but potentially decades later than in our timeline.

While joining the Entente would have given the Ottoman Empire a better chance at survival, its long-term fate would depend on how successfully it navigated these challenges.

8. Final Thoughts: What if the Ottoman Empire joins the Entente?

This alternate history scenario paints a dramatically different 20th and 21st century.

The survival and prosperity of the Ottoman Empire would reshape not just the Middle East, but global politics as a whole.

The absence of many modern Middle Eastern states, the different trajectory of Russian (and possibly Soviet) power, and the altered balance of power in Europe would create a world barely recognizable to us.

Key divergences from our timeline include the absence of the Turkish War of Independence, a different Russian Civil War, and a completely altered map of the Middle East. The development of Arab nations would take a radically different path, and the creation of Israel as we know it would likely not occur.

This speculative exercise reminds us of the contingent nature of history. The world we live in is the result of countless decisions and events, many of which could have gone differently. While this alternate history is purely speculative, it encourages us to think critically about historical events and their long-term consequences.